Thursday, May 26, 2011

Kathy Hochul is not Scott Brown

The New York Times, Harry Reid, Paul Krugman and pretty much every Democrat that can find a microphone, are falling all over themselves, hoping that Kathy Hochul (D) win in a historically Republican district (26th) in New York; (47%/ 43%), is a referendum on the Ryan Medicare plan, much as the Scott brown election was a referendum on Obamacare. Well looks look a little deeper. In Massachusetts, Brown won 52%/ 47%, which means the Democrat won in NY with same percentage they lost in Massachusetts. How is that possible? Well, the answer is a third candidate, Jack Davis, running as the “Tea Party” candidate. In the same election he garnered 9% of the vote. Davis is an interesting character; a previous Democrat who switched to the Republican Party and then Tea Party when the previous two would not accept him as a candidate.

Now if this election was a referendum on the Ryan plan, then one would think Davis was opposed to the Ryan plan, but this where the issue becomes convoluted. Indeed Davis said he is opposed to the Ryan plan, but Hochul and the Democrats have spent millions in ads criticizing him for backing it; a tactic obviously designed to keep the conservative Democrats in her court. So one has to ask, were those who voted for Davis, voting for the Davis that backed the Ryan plan or the Davis that opposed it. Either way, it is difficult to determine exactly why anyone voted for Davis. But and if you add the Republican and Tea Party votes, we find that conservatives won the election 52%/ 47%. So at best, Davis confused the electorate, and at worse, he was a Democrat in Tea Party clothing hoping to spit the Republican vote.

So no, Kathy Hochul is not Scott Brown, but John Davis does resemble Ross Perot.

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