Showing posts with label Michael Mann. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Mann. Show all posts

Friday, October 10, 2014

NOAA Caught Fabricating Past Temperatures for Climate Change

FA Hayek  explains the dogma of Obama's political beliefs such as Global Warming 60 years ago. "So he will readily embrace theories which seem to provide a rational justification for the prejudices which he shares with many of his fellows. Thus a pseudoscientific theory becomes part of the official creed which to a greater or lesser degree directs everybody’s action.
"Hayek, F. A. (2010-10-22). The Road to Serfdom: Text and Documents--The Definitive Edition (The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek, Volume 2) . University of Chicago Press - A. Kindle Edition.

There is incredible political pressure that has been put on the proving Climate Change. This reached new levels when it was discovered that NOAA’s US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) had been “adjusting” its record by replacing real temperatures with data “fabricated” by computer models. The unadjusted and historical temperatures show that the US has actually been cooling since the Thirties, the hottest decade on record; whereas the latest graph, nearly half of it based on “fabricated” data, shows it to have been warming. Once this was brought to light, NOAA changed the temperature data back to the historical accurate numbers.The animated image below shows the changes which Dr. Hansen made to the historical US temperature record after the year 1999. He cooled the 1930s, and warmed the 1980s and 1990s. The year 1998 went from being more than half a degree cooler than 1934, to warmer than 1934.. noaanasa-dramatically-altered-us-temperatures-after-the-year-2000/ 




One of the vehicles used by Man Made Climate Change (MMCC) zelots has been the continued use of lies and fabricated information in an attempt to prove that MMCC exists to a point that there will be long range negative effects. Even the choice of C02 being the main culprit is not based on any empirical evidence, but the simple fact that if MMCC  exists, C02 is the only greehouse gas that man creates in any quantity. There has never been any evidence that C02 traps heat, only constantly stated mis-information presented as Proxy or Observational science that the rest of the scientific community views at not being valid descriptions of the scientific process. Observational Science

When Al Gore first took the helm as chief zealot of MMCC, he would consistently show the C02 heat cycle of the ocean in reverse. It is excepted science that  as the Ocean warms, it releases C02, however Gore would present his MMCG argument showing as C02 levels increased, the ocean warms; something he still does to this day gore-and-bill-nye-fail-at-doing-a-simple-co2-experiment. It has also been completely ignored that none of Al Gores predictions of Catastrophic Climate Changes has come true, and neither has any of the thousands of computer models that were programmed to show climate change accelerated by an increase in C02. Great Global Warming.  And while  C02 levels have been increasing steadily (ie 315ppm in 1958 to 400 ppm today), there has been no global warming in almost 19 years. global-warming-pause-hits-18-years

The issues with these Climate Change computer models was voiced back in the 1970s. In 1975 National Academy of Sciences set up a "U.S. Committee for the Global Atmospheric Research Program" which included many top scientists. Academy reports and other scientific pronouncements... pointed out that predictions of future warming were based mainly on computer models, which were grossly oversimplified and relied on poorly measured numbers. Some scientists held that if the world was currently warming (which they doubted), that was just part of a natural cycle. Or the climate system might fluctuate in a purely random way, regardless of what humanity did. History of Climate Change and the reality is this remains as true today as it was 40 years ago; the main issue being that their are so many variables to Climate Change, that computer models must use significantly oversimplified data , usually pointed in one direction or another to produce and usable result; and  predictions of future warming  based on these computer models have been universally wrong.


There have also been study after study that were released with much fan fare that supposedly proved MMCC, only to be debunked as fraudulent once the methods of the author was discovered; the two major studies that fall into this category are Michael Manns Hockey Stick Graph and the 97% consensus on MMCC. The so called 97% consensus of climate scientists that man made climate change is a danger to the planet, is not only false, it may be a fraud as well. You see the survey of climate scientists was not a survey at all; in fact no scientists were ever contacted. Instead, the  Cook survey was a search engine,  that was so faulty it wrongly showed a 97% consensus. However when the scientific papers were actually reviewed and their authors contacted, it turns out the majority  were neutral on the subject of man made global warming; many also contacted Cook and asked to be removed from the survey. The survey was so faulty that in reality of 3%  respondents "explicitly stated agreement with the IPCC declarations on global warming', meaning the 97%  is actually the opposite of; the presented consensuses. 97% consensus on Climate Change a fraud

Michael Manns "hockey stick" graph has been discounted for two main reasons. The first was he treated proxy data as if was empirical evidence, and he refused to disclose his data so there is no way it could ever stand up to any scientific scrutiny. " When one talks about proxy data, it means such things as tree rings, ice cores and lake sediments; these and other proxy data is open to interpretation and requires a huge amount of repetitive results to be even be close to being reliable; it was the tree ring scientists (dendrochronologists) that complained about the Manns lack of cross-check tree ring records with other trees in the area to confirm his data. There is also the fact that though tree ring data was taken from hundreds Siberian samples for the hockey stick graph, only one was used; now refereed to as "the most influential tree in the world."  Climategate-reveals-the-most-influential-tree-in-the-world

 "The fact Mann refused to disclose his ‘hockey stick’ graph metadata in the British Columbia Supreme Court, as he is required to do under Canadian civil rules of procedure, constituted a fatal omission to comply, rendering his lawsuit unwinnable. As such, Dr Ball, by default, has substantiated his now famous assertion that Mann belongs "in the state pen, not Penn. State."  In short, Mann failed to show he did not fake his tree ring proxy data for the past 1,000 years, so Ball’s assessment stands as fair comment. Moreover, many hundreds of papers in the field of paleoclimate temperature reconstructions that cite Mann’s work are likewise tainted, heaping more misery on the discredited UN’s Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) which has a knack of relying on such sub prime science." michael-mann-faces-bankruptcy-as-his-courtroom-climate-capers-collapse

Friday, April 18, 2014

Climate Change; These Aren't the Droids You're Looking For

One of the first issues one has to deal with the Anthropological Global Warming (AGW) zealots is their terminology; they tend to use Global Warming, AGW and Climate Change interchangeably (Climate Change as defined by the zealots, always means Climate Change that is the result of AGW, but they will try and trap the opposition, making it appear they are denying the natural process of climate change that has occurred since the planet had an atmosphere). The point being it is well known that the climate has been warming since the 16 century, the question being what affect man has had on the climate, and the best information science has, is nothing; or it is so minor it is unmeasurable. Further, ask any AGW zealot what exactly would be the result of de-industrializing the world to reduce man's carbon foot print and the answer is a minor reduction in the timetable of the inevitable warming of the planet; a warming that humanatinity was has had no part in (AGW is based on the theory that increases of C02 in the atmosphere from the Industrial revolution has accelerated Global Warming; ie Climate Change). One problem with this theory is the fact that C02 in the earth's atmosphere has increased in the last 15 years (360 ppm to 400 ppm; this is the same rate of increase since the 1980's, from 336ppm in the 1980's to 395ppm in 2013) but there has been no global warming in the same period Carbon Dioxide in Earth's Atmosphere. Still the zealots wave their hands in front of our collective faces, trying the Jedi mind trick that "These aren't the droids you're looking for"; in other words any chink in the AGW is not to be dwelled upon because the science is settled.

Then there is the often quoted study that AGW has a 97% consensus amongst scientists. The so called survey by AGW alarmists John Cook, has not only been scientifically discredited, but had become the poster child for the manipulation of information.

Then there is the often quoted study that AGW has a 97% consensus amongst scientists. The so called survey by AGW alarmists John Cook, has not only been scientifically discredited, but had become the poster child for the manipulation of information.One of the primary criticisms is most of the studies Cook claimed to support AGW, were actually neutral on the subject (8,000 out of 12,000) or rejected it entirely (the 97% was based on a ranking system, not the actual number of studies). One researcher that critiqued the study said,  

"Remembering AGW stands for anthropogenic global warming, or global warming caused by humans, take a minute to let that sink in.  This study done by John Cook and others..., found more scientific publications whose abstracts reject global warming than say humans are primarily to blame for it". Musings on the 97% Consensus. Misleading the public about consensus opinion regarding global warming, of course, is precisely what the Cook paper sought to accomplish. This is a tried and true ruse perfected by global warming alarmists. Global warming alarmists use their own biased, subjective judgment to misclassify published papers according to criteria that is largely irrelevant to the central issues in the global warming debate. Then, by carefully parsing the language of their survey questions and their published results, the alarmists encourage the media and fellow global warming alarmists to cite these biased, subjective, totally irrelevant surveys as conclusive evidence for the lie that nearly all scientists believe humans are creating a global warming crisis. Global Warming Alarmists caught Doctoring 97% Consensus Claims/

The settled science of AGW is usually based on proxy data being fed into a computer model, or more recently "multi-proxy climate reconstructions", both rely on the often mistaken belief that proxy data is accurate enough and can be used to document past climate changes in order to predict future climate change due to global warming; both have proved  problematic and elusive. The purpose of science is rarely to predict the future, but to understand current phenomena; pretty much all attempts to predict the future of any act of nature, unless it's constantly repeats like the tides, has resulted in failure. The amount of variables in the weather and climate change are so numerous, it was the impetus for Chaos Theory; "Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future". In other words, until you know all the variables in minute detail of the initial condition of a process (and understand how they interact with each other), you will never be able to make an accurate prediction of the future.

Michael Mann's famous (and now discredited) hockey stick graph was based almost solely on proxy-data (and a programed for success computer model). "(Proxy data is an) indirect measurement inferred from a property more loosely related to temperature (the relationship may be less well understood or less reproducible and require more measurements and analysis before drawing a conclusion)." When one talks about proxy data, it means such things as tree rings, ice cores and lake sediments; these and other proxy data is open to interpretation and requires a huge amount of repetitive results to be even come close to being reliable. It was the tree ring scientists (dendrochronologists) that first complained about the Manns lack of cross-check tree ring record.Tree Ring Records Spur Debate. Then there is the expos
é of the Phil Jones  Keith Briffa/ CRU studies,  showed that from hundreds of Siberian samples, Mann appeared to cherry pick only those that matched the criteria he was looking for. Other studies based on similar data had clearly shown the Medieval Warm Period as hotter than today. Indeed only the evidence from one tree, YADO61, seemed to show a "hockey stick" pattern, and it was this, in light of the extraordinary reverence given to the CRU's studies; now refereed to as "the most influential tree in the world." The Most Influential Tree in the World.

This is an IPCC graph before Michel Manns Hockey stick graph; there is still a hockey stick looking part of the graph on the right side, but it also includes the Medieval Warming period.






























This is Michael Manns Graph that shows a similar "hockey stick" at the end, but ignores the  the Medieval Warming period.













The limited proxy alone shows the failings of the AGW predictions. If there is any validity to Chaos theory (Choas theory is still the gold standard in the study of the behavior of dynamical systems) there is no way any amount of proxy data will ever be accurate or complete enough to know the initial conditions of the processes of global warming and climate change. Further AGW doesn't even qualify as a hypotheses or theory as by definition these must include a method to determine if the hypotheses or theory is false; if the science of human generated global warming is settled than is only scientific theory ever known to have reached this paradoxical state. Michael Manns Hockey stick graph has become a discredited object in the history of science The Hockey Schtick  The Hook 97% consensus survey has already been debunked Global Warming Alarmists Caught Doctoring Consensus Claim as has the recent Lovejoy multi-proxy climate reconstructions (who simply omitted the Medieval Warming period again to prove his case)  Lovejoy Global Warming Paper 100% Wrong


Now, I would like to include a description of science to show how far from science AGW really is. Recently, scientists from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics announced their discovery of gravitational waves created at the dawn of the universe. These waves were created in a period of rapid expansion called cosmic inflation. This new evidence could prove the definitive confirmation of the inflation theory. But other researchers are not convinced. Discovery of Gravity Waves Questioned by Cosmologists The reason for questioning the these gravity waves is explained by the following, Science is a demanding and unforgiving business, and great discoveries are greeted not with parades and champagne but rather with questions, doubts and demands for more data. Really? So why has it been so different with AGW. The article goes on, No one is alleging an outright scientific error. It’s more of a debate about how scientists should communicate their uncertainties when presenting blockbuster findings. This is a case of “extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." Again one has to ask, where is the extraordinary evidence for the blockbuster findings of AGW?  The answer is there are none, because AGW is not empirical science, it  political (within the realm of fascist) science. Big-Bang Backlash.

Finally, let's look at the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). This think tank was formed prior to the 2009 UN Copenhagen Climate Summit. The GWPF as an enemy of US climate scientists becasue it takes the stand that it,  does not have an official or shared view about the science of global warming – although we are of course aware that this issue is not yet settled;  and, Above all we seek to inform the media, politicians and the public, in a newsworthy way, on the subject in general (AGW) and on the misinformation to which they are all too frequently being subjected at the present time. Recently, Professor Bengtsson, a former director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg and author of more than 200 papers, accepted an invitation to join the (Academic Advisory)  Council (of the GWPF) less than three weeks ago. His decision significantly enhanced the credibility of the foundation, which announced that “one of Sweden’s leading climate scientists” had joined its council. Unfortunately he had to resign soon afterwards, “I have been put under such an enormous group pressure from all over the world that has become virtually unbearable. It is a situation that reminds me [of] the time of McCarthy.” The reason? because the GWPF takes the position that the science AGW is not settled. Professor Bengtsson Blames US Climate Scientists for Witch Hunt. Professor Bengtsson said the pressure was so intense that he would be unable to continue working and feared for his health and safety unless he stepped down. Yes this is the fascist political science of AGW.. but don't pay any attention, because "these aren't  the droids you're looking for".