Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Taking the wonderingmind42 Challenge
wonderingmind42 has a common sense way about him where he presents his view of Global Warming. He shows a grid with his presumed 4 possible results of either paying to reduce global warming or not;
1)We pay to reduce global warming and it does no occur = (the) “Cost $” (resulting in a) Global Depression
2)We do nothing and global warming does not occur = (smiley face)(we save the money and no Global Depression)
3)We pay to reduce global warming and it does occur= (smiley face)(the) “Cost $”
4) We do nothing and global warming does occur= Catastrophes (including); social, economical, political, environmental (and) health
wonderingmind42’s conclusion: Considering the possible extreme results of global warming, there is no choice but to reduce our carbon footprint and pay the price. And then he asks for feedback as to where he has errored. Well wonderingmind42, Ill take you up on that.
Without going any father than your chart, in #3 the result of paying to reduce global warming, whether it happens or not, will still result in the same depression as with #1. Now we also have to look at what the United States by itself could do to slow global warming. According to Joel Rodgers founder of the Apollo Alliance, a liberal think tank and Green policy adviser to President Obama, the United States would have completely de-industrialize and it would still have minimal impact on Global warming.
Okay, forget that, lets consider the practicality of de-industrializing enough to actually reduce global warming. We would first need world government, as China (the worst offender), India and most emerging third world countries will not jump on the global warming bandwagon, so we are looking at the cost of a world war, which will have the same effect as #4. Okay lets forget that, lets look at the current effect of going green in the world. The current policies of the IMF, which have forced struggling countries to switch from food crops to alternate energy crops, which has led to, according to the United Nations themselves, the unintended consequence of being the direct cause over 1 million people starving to death per year. Ouch! This is the reason we found a thriving business in Haiti selling mud biscuits.
Based on these unintended consequences, there is now evidence that the amount of C02 that we produce is related to the population we can support. The ratio seems to be close to 1 to 1. In other words with our present technology, if we reduce C02 production by 10%, there would be a reduction in the ability to support 10% of the population. If your not understanding this, it means reducing Co2 will lead to the death, usually by starvation, of large percentages of the world. President Obama wants reduce US green house gases by 28% and the US produces about 29% of the worlds green house gases; this should result in the death of 8.12% of world's population.
Hmmm trying to stop this global warming thing is not looking good. But look you added another video, “How it all ends”.
The first thing I noticed is you removed any downside to #3 leaving only a smiley face. Apparently just stopping global warming will eliminate the massive effects of the cost and likely global depression. You also added scientific organizations like NAS and AAAS and energy and chemical companies that back global warming. First lets discuss the scientific evidence and reputations. For one thing you did not mention the IPCC, the United Nations Climate Organization that is responsible for supply the NAS and AAAS with 75% of their data. Turns out the IPCC was so concerned about their reputations, that the ignored contrary data, fudged computer models and attempted to discredit the life work of any scientists with contrary conclusions. Oh, I’m sorry, this occurred 2 years after you made these videos. Let me also add this from my blog, Progressives; Lost in the 20's It is no coincidence that progressive thought and science are both produced in academia. The idea that science cannot be influenced and comes to its conclusions independently is historically absurd. The truth is science has always been used to protect and prove the status quo, while independent inquiry is usually done in darkened rooms with notes written in code. Most scientists are employed by large corporations and are not paid to do independent research.
And then there are all the energy and chemical companies like BP, Shell, GE Dow, Dupont, PGE, Siemens..etc, are all pushing for green energy. Well, not really, what they are pushing for is carbon credits. You see they are in the unique position of having control of the carbon credits market and the derivatives that will result in a cap and trade system. By all accounts, cap and trade will do little to reduce green house gases as industry will simply pass down to the consumer the added cost of carbon credits ; that’s why it is referred to as pay to pollute, as these companies will reap billions in the carbon credit market. The company that first invested in the concept of carbon credits was Enron, with BP, Shell and Phillips not far behind. The company that first invested in the concept of carbon credits was Enron (remember them?), with BP, Shell and Phillips not far behind.
wonderingmind42, I’m guessing many of these issues have already been brought up, but there is something about 7 million people watching this kind of propaganda that kept me up for about 20 minutes last night. One more thing, returning to Joel Rodgers for a minute, if your wondering why one of the biggest supporters and promoters, has pretty much written off ever reducing or stabilizing of Global Warming, the answer is simple. Like all progressives, Rodgers is a redistributionist. When all is said and done, all global warming will end up being, is a scheme for redistribution of wealth through carbon credits. By the way, good Alton Brown imitation.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
The Myth of Carbon Credits
Two of the nastiest air pollutants is S02 (sulphur dioxide) and N02 (nitrogen dioxide). These are the pollutants that sting your eyes, hurt your lungs, causes acid rain and is turning the oceans to acid as Al Gore likes to say. Other greenhouse gases are methane, carbon monoxide and some commonly referred to as soot. Wouldn't it be nice if Al Gore was trying to clean the atmosphere of known poisons such as these, instead of C02. If Al Gore and the Man Made Climate Change crowd gets it's way the US and other developed industrial countries will pay trillions of dollars on carbon credits, but be free to dump as much of this poison in the air as it wants. And as I've said before, it won't even lower the levels of C02. The framework the Man Made Climate Change advocates are putting into place will accomplish one thing, it will take money from industrialized countries and give it to non-industrialized using carbon credits. As long as the industry can pay the carbon credits and still make a profit, they will continue to do so, without reducing their carbon footprint. Further, if carbon credits become too expensive, were industry really starts cutting back on it's carbon footprint, that will mean less money to those selling the carbon credits. This means there will be no inducement to raise the cost of carbon credits to force any real reduction in C02, which supposedly is the point to carbon credits.
Hopefully, at least one person has read this and realized the Man Made Climate Change will not remove one ounce of pollution from the air, and is designed solely so UN bankers can get their cut of the carbon credits, as money is re-distributed through the planet; all the while, real pollution is being ignored. And who is on the forefront of cashing in on these Carbon Credits? Would it surprise you to learn that Al Gore is expected be the first Carbon Credit billionaire from his investments in carbon credit investments banks in Europe; once the US enters the picture that amount should double. Until that time Sec of State Hillary Clinton has pledged $100 billion a year.
But there is hope. In recent events it appears the CRU, for this first time in history, is starting to release it's raw data. The data they first released was collected from Russia. Turns out the CRU cherrypicked Russian climate data and ignored 75% of the data that conflicted with temperatures not raising. So I guess all the nay sayers about Climate-Gate were right, the emails didn't appear to show that the CRU scientists had actually falsified any figures in an attempt to strengthen the case for CO2-driven global warming, they simply ignored any data that was conflicting. And again, the CRU provides all the Global warming information used by the United Nations.
One more interesting fact about Climate Change. It seems all the scientists who have signed on to the Man Made Climate Change bandwagon, have ruled out the sun as having any affect on Global Warming. I know, I making this up; there is no way a scientist would ignore that huge thermo-nuclear ball in the sky that is responsible for +99.99 of the heat on the planet (there are also volcanoes, but lets not even start to discuss their carbon footprint). It seems they have decided that the sun is a constant and has no effect at all on global warming or cooling for that matter. Well, it seems there are some pesky climatologist that have figured out that when the sun has spots, Global temperatures go up and when the spots go away, Global temperatures go down. This might have something to do with the phenomena that global warming on Mars mirrors the global warming on earth. And even without instances of very generous interpretations of Man Made Climate Change, the sun spot theory corresponds with every known period of global cooling and warming, in which data exists. Hmmm, might be something more climatologists might want to look into.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Al Gore and His Anecdotal Science
So, if Al Gore is correct, you should be able to prove the opposite, right? Well no, there has never been an experiment that has shown that C02 traps heat. To say that C02 traps heat because Heat increase C02 is called reverse logic and is the worse form of science. It would be the same as saying because heat melts ice, then melting ice must cause heat. To try and prove his reverse logic, Al Gores uses a second and much harder to prove scientific method, called proxy. Proxy science requires you to first prove a phenomena exists and then try and prove what causes it. In other words, rather than observing a phenomena, you simply reason it exists; then you try and reason why it exists. The main problem with proxy science is, it's very difficult to know what other forces play a part in the phenomena your are dealing with. In the first part of this equation, Al Gore and the scientists paid by the United Nations and the Carbon Credit traders for their analysis, have spent most of their time trying proving that Global Warming exists. Since Global Warming is not immediately observable, the scientist have to develop some method to show it does. This is primarily done through temperature probes (thermometers) placed all over the planet and monitoring Arctic and Antarctic ice flows; and while they say their data proves Global warming is occurring, the recent hacked-emails from the CRU say, it is a "travesty" they can't prove Global Warming. Then, without the distraction of proving the planet's temperature is actually raising, he determines the C02 emitted into the atmosphere by man, to the exclusion of the massive amounts of C02 that is naturally produced, all the other gases in the atmosphere and all natural phenomena (including the sun), is sufficient to cause Man Made Global Warming . Then Al Gore ignores that there is no science that proves C02 does anything other that feed trees; states that C02 traps heat, but refuses to discuss the basis of this reverse logic with anyone; the proxy science becomes anecdotal dogma.
So when you hear Al Gore mis-state science, do what I do and yell out, "Liar!" When Al Gore states that 40% of the Arctic Ice has melted, yell out "Liar"; the 25% of the ice that melted in 2007, has returned this year. And, when Al Gore says all the Polar Bears are dying, yell out, "Liar"; their population has stayed steady at about 20,000- 25,000 for the last 20 years and is believed to be an increase from 1950 population of 5,000. Oh, and by the way, Polar Bears are excellent swimmers and the male has a nasty habit of eating it's young unless stopped by the mother. When science is used for political purposes, it can only become as corrupted as politicians, lets hope Man Made Global Warming goes they way of the conventional wisdom that earth was the center of the universe.
This is in response to Michael Stobbe comment on my Global Warming article published in your paper Dec 20. First I want to compliment Mr Stobbe for responding in such a respectful way, although we may not agree (hard to tell, but I'll get to that in a moment) it is the intelligent exchange of ideas that is missing from the Man Made Climate Change discussion. What Mr Stobbe misunderstood was I was not trying to make a case for increased C02 levels coming primarily from the Ocean; actually I don't believe that at all. What I was saying is it doesn't matter were the C02 is coming from, because, beyond questionable anecdotal science, there is no evidence that C02 traps heat. My little experiments were simply (very simply) designed to demonstrate the difference between experimental and anecdotal science; and the anecdotal science of Man Made Climate Change is horribly flawed. I again state my argument. We know that heat causes atmospheric C02 levels to rise. The entire Man Made Climate Change argument rest on the fallacy that C02 traps heat and causes temperatures to rise. To use one to prove the other is like saying because heat melts ice, then melting ice causes heat. If you believe that than I've got some carbon credits for sale.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Part 2; Obama's America Becomes a Corporation
America as a corporation does not compete against itself. GM and Chrysler are no longer competitors, they are now different products made by the same company. As with most corporations, America will be highly compartmentalized. In Italian fascism these were referred to as Syndicates. One thing I have yet mention is Isolationism. A corporation can not control all facets of production if it has to constantly contend with outside influences. For that sake, America as a Corporation will close down it's borders and become less of an international player. On the other hand, the US would extend it's hegemony in a more direct fashion over those areas that contain the resources it needs. In these areas, the governments that control these resources will understand they control these resources in name only and if necessary, America as a Corporation will have no compunction to extend it's borders if necessary for it's security. Right now, illegal immigration is used as a form of slave labor for US industry and agriculture; that will have to stop. In it's place will be a change in the Criminal Justice system where prisons and jails will become Rehabilitation Institutions. It is estimated there are 11 million illegal aliens in the US; half are unemployed; this includes mothers, children and criminals. Of the 5.5 working illegal aliens, only about a third work in agriculture, the balance work in construction jobs such as roofing and insulation. There are also about 2.5 million incarcerated Americans with an additional 3.5 million on probation and parole. It would not take that much to assign parole and probationers one years of paid service in agriculture as a condition of their release. Further, low level prisoners could also be used as labor. In regards to the hard core criminals that remain, one could imagine a more Draconian solution in the vain of a hydraulic system. The state would determine it could incarcerate so many dangerous criminal. Once that number had been achieved, the criminals that have been in the system the longest, would be executed. With this system rehabilitation would take on a new sense of urgency.
The life of the average citizen would not change much with America as a corporation. As a matter of fact, the average Joe will see a steady paycheck, very affordable health care, 3 weeks paid vacations a week and 12 paid sick days a year. It will be management's job to keep production humming along; to reward hard work and give the slackers a kick in the pants when needed. Private ownership and even the control of small business is allowed under fascism. This of course will be in the good times. In fascism, the government is an objective determinate between workers and industry. However, since the governments decisions are always looking toward increased production, wages and benefits tend to be tied to the preceived health of industry. The free market as we know it would disappear. A small amount of competition is allowed to encourage innovation, but not to the point that it would effect the health and growth of the controlled economy. Unlike Communism, fascism usually does not take direct control of a company; Nationalization is accomplished by oversight and regulations. What this accomplishes is accountability to the state. What has come to the attention to the American people is a total lack of accountability by the corporations; especially in the Investment Bankers. The cause of the sub prime meltdown was not so much as a lack of regulations, but a total lack of accountability. CEO's of companies that have lost millions of it's investors money are still getting bonuses in the tens of millions of dollars. Now that the Obama Administration has bailed out these investment banks, they have started to pull the strings to cap salaries in these institutions. This is another page from the fascist playbook. You have a compartmentalized government pay Czar, that now has the power to determine how much the employee of a private company can make.
While there will be a stock market with America as a Corporation, it will look nothing like what it looks like today. It will a slimmed down version designed to invest in companies to help then grow. There will be no derivatives, commodities or unregulated markets, since these markets are impossible to control with little or no accountability. The Federal reserve will be abolished and the Dept of the treasury will have unfettered control of the money supply. Oh, and the trillions of dollars invested in America by countries like China and Saudi Arabia; sorry, in the name of National Security, there will be no foreign ownership of any US Property.
Fascism is also known as being non-intellectual. While this might sound counter to the Obama Administration, there is many areas where sudo-science is presented as fact. Nothing could be truer than climate change and the current Cap and Trade Bill. Without arguing the merits of want is now being called Climate Change, lets just look at what happened to the original studies done in the phenomena called “The Greenhouse Effect”. The term was actually coined in the late 1800's. It is the study of why the climate of earth is stable enough to sustain life. Without the Greenhouse Effect, our planet could not sustain life. Atmospheric scientist have studied the Greenhouse effect to explore what forces cause changes in climates on our planet. At the time forest fires and volcanoes were believed to have the greatest affect. In the 1960s , with the aid of increasingly more powerful computers, Meterologists began experimenting with computer models, in attempt to predict the weather. The result was a rift in scientific thought, that shook the world of Newtonian Physics. From "Chaos, Making A New Science" by James Gleck.
“Scientists marching under Newton's banner actually waved another flag that said something like this: Given an approximate knowledge of a system's initial conditions and an understanding of natural law, one can calculate approximate behaviour of the system.” In other words, when figuring the nature of systems, “Very small influences can be neglected”. Newton believed that if you you had enough information about the past, that information could be reduced to a mathematical equation and reproduced; and if you can reproduce the past you can forecast the future. Edward Lorenz was a weather scientist working with computers at MIT in the 1960's. “One day in the winter of 1961”, Lorenz was running a simple weather model through his computer; ”wanting to examine one sequence at greater length, Lorenz took a shortcut. Instead of starting the whole thing over, he started midway through. To give the machine it's initial conditions, he typed the numbers straight from the earlier printout. Then he walked down the hall to get away from the noise and get a cup of coffee. When he returned an hour later, he saw something unexpected, something that planted a seed for a new science.”
The new science Gleck was eluding to was Chaos Theory. What had happened was the computer model returned with a completely different forecast as before. It turns out the reason was Gleck had rounded off his numbers from six decimal places to three; .506127 had been typed in as .506; according to the current Newtonian thought, this small difference should have been inconsequential. Lorenz had discovered that small changes in initial conditions produced large changes in the long-term outcome. Gleck explained this by comparing predicting tides to predicting the weather. “The average person, seeing that we can predict tides pretty well a few months ahead would say, why can't we do the same thing with the atmosphere, it's just a fluid system , the laws are about as complicated. But I realized that any physical system that behave non-periodically would be unpredictable”. In other words the reason we can predict tides is because they are periodical; like a newspaper being delivered to your house every day. Even though we no nothing about the complicated life of the human being that delivers the paper, the fact that it shows up every morning between 5-6 AM, allows us to predict the same will happen tomorrow. However, if you subscribe to a “zine”, or internet blog that shows up only when the writer has something to say, there is no way to predict when you will see the next issue. This may sound like common sense, but before Chaos Theory scientist believed there was some inherent pattern to the world that would allow you to make such a prediction.
Okay, why have I spent all this time on Chaos Theory. The reason is simple. The study of understanding and predicting the weather is very difficult; so difficult in fact that it gave us a new understanding of the true complexity of the universe we live in. When Lorenz went searching for a way to predict the weather, he was as if in a boat made by Newton; much like Rory Shiver looking for the shark in Jaws. What he discovered, when he saw the scope of the problem, was he was going to need a bigger boat. Science is a process, it is not supposed to be a tool to control the citizenry of a country; but it is another page from the fascist playbook.